Do you think it’s time to hang some hard numbers on the promises that China, India, and the US are making regarding their CO2 emissions? I sure do.
The promises:
- China said it will reduce the intensity of their CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by up to 45% by the year 2020, from a 2005 baseline. I will assume they succeed in the full 45% reduction.
- India said it will reduce their CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 20 to 25% by 2020, also from a 2005 baseline. I will assume they make the full 25% reduction.
- The US has said it will reduce total emissions by 17% by 2020, from a 2005 baseline. Again, I will assume they succeed.
The context:
China
- 2005 GDP: 2,225 billion US$
- 2005 CO2 emissions: 5,429 million metric tons
- 2020 GDP: 10,130 billion US$
- 2005 CO2 intensity: 2.44 million metric tons CO2/billion US$
- 2008 CO2 emissions: 6,315 million metric tons CO2
India
- 2005 GDP: 759 billion US$
- 2005 CO2 emissions: 1,194 million metric tons
- 2020 GDP: 3,228 billion US$
- 2005 CO2 intensity: 1.57 million metric tons CO2/billion US$
- 2008 CO2 emissions: 1,664 million metric tons CO2
United States
- 2005 GDP: 12,457 billion US$
- 2005 CO2 emissions: 5,994 million metric tons
- 2020 GDP: 28,830 billion US$
- 2005 CO2 intensity: 0.48 million metric tons CO2/billion US$
- 2008 CO2 emissions: 5,612 million metric tons CO2
The GDP numbers are from page 12 of the 2020 Foresight Report, and the CO2 numbers are from Table 11.19 of the US Dept. of Energy’s Annual Energy Review. The 2005 carbon intensity numbers are simply (2005 CO2 emissions) / (2005 GDP). The 2008 estimated CO2 emissions come from the CDIAC, Preliminary 2007-08 Global & National Estimates [XLS].
Please note that all CO2 numbers from these sources measure the burning of fossil fuels, and do not include cement manufacture, land use changes, natural gas flaring, etc.
The projections:
China
- Reduction in CO2 intensity, 2005 to 2020 (assumed): 45%
- 2020 CO2 intensity (assumed): 1.342 million metric tons CO2/billion US$
- 2020 CO2 emissions with no intensity reduction: 24,717.2 million metric tons CO2
- 2020 CO2 emissions with the promised intensity reduction: 13,594 million metric tons CO2
- Change in CO2 emissions, 2005 to 2020, with the promised intensity reduction: +8,165 million metric tons CO2/year (+150%)
- Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2008 to 2020, with the promised intensity reduction: 119,448 million metric tons CO2
India
- Reduction in CO2 intensity, 2005 to 2020 (assumed): 25%
- 2020 CO2 intensity (assumed): 1.178 million metric tons CO2/billion US$
- 2020 CO2 emissions with no intensity reduction: 5,067 million metric tons CO2
- 2020 CO2 emissions with the promised intensity reduction: 3,802 million metric tons CO2
- Change in CO2 emissions, 2005 to 2020, with the promised intensity reduction: +2,608 million metric tons CO2/year (+218%)
- Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2008 to 2020, with the promised intensity reduction: 32,796 million metric tons CO2
United States (items re-ordered to reflect calculation sequence)
- 2020 CO2 emissions with no level reduction: 12,973 million metric tons CO2
- 2020 CO2 emissions with the promised level reduction: 4,975 million metric tons CO2
- Change in CO2 emissions, 2005 to 2020, with the promised level reduction: -1,018 million metric tons CO2/year (-17%)
- 2020 CO2 intensity (calculated): 0.173 million metric tons CO2/billion US$
- Reduction in CO2 intensity, 2005 to 2020 (calculated): 64%
- Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2008 to 2020, with the promised level reduction: 63,516 million metric tons CO2
The cumulative emissions for each country assumes the reductions begin in 2009, since the most recent numbers I could find were estimates for 2008, and that the reductions will happen linearly.
Conclusions, based on the Copenhagen promises about 2020:
- Emissions from China and India will rise substantially, while those from the US will decline slightly.
- China will be emitting 2.73 times as much CO2/year as the US, or 8,619 million metric tons more/year.
- India will be emitting 76% of the US’s total, or 1,173 million metric tons less/year.
- The US has the greatest CO2 intensity reduction, 64%, compared to China’s 45% and India’s 25%.
- The avoided emissions (2020 business as usual vs. 2020 promise; millions of metric tons/year) are China: 11,123, the US: 7,998, and India: 1,265.
- The combined, cumulative emissions of China, India, and the US from 2009 to 2020 will be 215,760 million metric tons. China’s share will be 55%, the US’: 29%, India’s: 15%. Assuming we have a remaining worldwide CO2 budget of 3,660,000 million metric tons, the combined, cumulative emissions of the three countries over that 12-year period will represent 5.9% of our entire remaining allotment. Removing the 40% “Archer bonus”[1] reduces our CO2 budget to 2,196,000 million metric tons, which means these three countries will eat up 9.8% of it in just 12 years.
Clearly, one can object to the exact way in which I made these calculations regarding China and India. Should their GDP be measured in US dollars or their own currencies? Should they be nominal or PPP (purchasing power parity) figures? And whose GDP projections should we use? This is one of the fundamental issues with CO2 intensity-based pledges: As tough as it is to get accurate measurements of emissions in countries that have an enormous incentive to lie about them (which is every country on the planet), we now have additional layers of “debatable uncertainty” added in the form of economic projections and a choice of ways to measure GDP. That makes it much more difficult to evaluate our collective performance and make useful projections. In an age of “living measured lives on a managed planet”, that’s not good enough.
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, the bottom line remains the same: None of these three countries are promising to do enough. Until they do, all the political posturing in Copenhagen (and likely Mexico City in 2010) means precisely nothing.
[1] The “Archer bonus” (my term) refers to the fact that we’ve arbitrarily given ourselves a 40% bonus in the amount of CO2 we can emit by selecting the year 2100 as an arbitrary cutoff date. David Archer details this situation on 162 of his (highly recommended) book The Long Thaw.
