As most people who read this site are likely aware, we’ve now heard from the various countries about what they will pledge to do as part of the Copenhagen deal. It ain’t pretty.
Copenhagen Deadline Comes And Goes. Now What? (emphasis added):
January 31 was the deadline under the Copenhagen accord for the world’s countries to formally submit their plans to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and help address climate change. So what happened? Well, the deadline came and went, and the vast majority of nations (more than 130) didn’t submit anything at all. On the upside, though, the handful of countries that actually pump out most of the world’s carbon-dioxide did submit plans. Here were the major pledges for cutting emissions:
[depressing country-level detail]
These are all tangible steps, but still minor ones. Add up the promises, and it’s not enough to avert serious warming: Ecofys, a consulting firm, estimates that if all those countries actually met to their targets, global temperatures would be on course to rise 3.5°C (6.3°F) above pre-industrial levels. The agreed-upon goal, recall, was 2°C. What’s more, even these goals aren’t guaranteed: The U.S. pledge, for instance, would depend on Congress passing legislation that looks like the House climate/energy bill, and the prospects in the Senate are growing dim.
The countries involved have given themselves permission to opt out of the process, but they’re still making pledges that sound impressive to those not familiar with the depth and breadth of the problem. Why do I think the universe won’t be fooled by this clever demonstration of political sleight of hand?
Its interesting that this the most sever downturn since the depresion only resulted in a 2% reduction in CO2 emissions. ]
What does that say for the reality of reducing emissions to the required extent on the economy. There is no getting round this.
Sever auterity is probably the likely outcome of any meaningful attempt to restrict the AGW to close to 2C.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/01/emissions-drop-recession-government
The mood of the moment…Post Copenhagen Stress Disorder!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sanjay-khanna/post-copenhagen-stress-di_b_442738.html
If the U.S. decided to delay until 2020 to begin reducing its carbon emissions, it would need to reduce real carbon emissions levels by 9% per year. Pointing to the historical record of economies being commandeered in wartime, Schellnhuber hinted that such drastic emissions-levels reductions could only be achieved under military-type rule.
[and this is to try to limit it to 2C (ie reality - 3C). Well, a 2C increase we are finding is a nightmare anyway as the ice will all pretty much melt at that level!]
The world is headed for an unprecedented, epic disaster. Woe is me to be surrounded by a conservative base that genuflects at every Fox News/Rush Limbaugh talking-point claiming it’s all a left-wing conspiracy. Idiots, in every clinical sense of the word.