From Fred D. Thompson, in His Own Words:
Some people think that our planet is suffering from a fever. … NASA says the Martian South Pole’s ‘ice cap’ has been shrinking for three summers in a row. Maybe Mars got its fever from earth. If so, I guess Jupiter’s caught the same cold, because it’s warming up too, like Pluto. This has led some people, not necessarily scientists, to wonder if Mars and Jupiter, nonsignatories to the Kyoto Treaty, are actually inhabited by alien SUV-driving industrialists who run their airconditioning at 60 degrees and refuse to recycle.
This is the savior of the Republican party that many on the political right are having the vapors over as he prepares to enter the 2008 race.
Yowza.
From Air-Car Ready for Mass Production:
The world’s first commercial compressed air-powered vehicle is rolling towards the production line. The Air Car, developed by ex-Formula One engineer Guy Nègre, will be built by India’s largest automaker, Tata Motors.
…
The CityCat model will clock out at 68 mph with a driving range of 125 miles.Refueling is simple and will only take a few minutes. That is, if you live nearby a gas station with custom air compressor units. The cost of a fill up is approximately $2.00. If a driver doesn’t have access to a compressor station, they will be able to plug into the electrical grid and use the car’s built-in compressor to refill the tank in about 4 hours.
The compressed air technology is basically just a way of storing electrical energy without the need for costly, heavy, and occasionally toxic batteries. So, in a sense, this is an electric car. It just doesn’t have an electric motor.
There’s a constant buzz about air cars, and I’m not sure what to make of them. The article above mentions that the company making this model has plans to expand into 12 countries beyond India, including Germany, Israel, and South Africa, plus a hybrid version with a very small on-board gasoline engine to refill the air tank, ala a series hybrid that recharges its battery pack via its own engine.
Looking at the numbers above, you can drive one of these micro cars for about 1.6 cents/mile, which is insanely low. A Civic-sized EV recharged at 10 cents/kWh gets about 5 miles/kWh, which is 2 cents/mile, and the air car would be vastly cheaper since it replaces the high tech battery with a low tech air tank. Even if you assume that a larger air car would have the same cost/mile as an EV, the lower initial cost would still make it a much more attractive alternative, if all other things are equal.
And that’s the rub–are all the other relevant factors equal? I honestly don’t know. How do you run your electrical goodies in the car–is that done with a generator driven off the engine? What is the reliability of the air tank, lines, and engine, especially under wildly varying weather conditions? Does it make a really embarrassing farting noise when you drive down the street? (Think I’m kidding? Try selling a car that did do that to the US public, and see how far you get, beyond, you know, the Weird Al Yankovic fans.)
And if this is such a good idea, why don’t we see them being built and sold in the US by GM or Honda? It could be as simple as those companies not wanting to start a trend of drivers here buying much cheaper cars, which not coincidentally, tend to have a much lower profit margin?
It’s entirely possible that air cars could have a huge future. Imagine the following scenario: Peak oil starts to bite deeply into modern economies, even our best efforts to reduce the price of batteries for plug-in hybrids and EV’s fail, and hydrogen remains a pipe dream. We could then see a tremendous demand for air cars (both pure and hybrid) as an indirect way of electrifying a large portion of personal transportation.
I think it’s far too early to reach any conclusions about air cars, other than to say that they belong in the “really interesting concept that bears watching” category.
From NASA Administrator Not Sure Global Warming A Problem:
Michael Griffin NASA Administrator has told America’s National Public Radio that while he has no doubt a trend of global warming exists “I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with.”
In an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep that will air in Thursday’s edition of NPR News’ Morning Edition, Administrator Griffin explains: “I guess I would ask which human beings - where and when - are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that’s a rather arrogant position for people to take.”
[sarcastic expression of outrage]
[several well chosen factual points to highlight the absurdity of Griffin’s claims]
[mini-rant about the on-going anti-science crusade of the Bush Administration]
[bitterly funny and sarcastic comment about how much trouble we’re in and how we’re whistling past the graveyard]
[sit in corner of office and weep uncontrollably for 10 minutes, then get back to work–this world ain’t gonna save itself]
Please hop over to The Oil Drum and read Concentrating Solar Power, a very good introduction to the basics of CSP and some humongous projects in the works.
One minor detail: “CSP” can be a somewhat confusing term, as it’s used to refer to a variant of photovoltaic power, in which lenses focus light onto solar cells to boost their efficiency, as well as to solar thermal (in the article above), that uses large mirrors to focus light and collect heat that’s ultimately used to drive electricity generating turbines.
From Coming to a Dump Near You — Nuclear Waste:
The Nuclear Information and Resource Service (NIRS), a nonprofit organization, released a report on May 14 that exposes Department of Energy (DOE) practices of dumping nuclear-related waste in facilities that are unregulated and not designed for radioactive material. NIRS found that DOE’s policies and procedures are geared toward the “release of radioactive waste, materials and property from regulatory control.”
After reviewing seven DOE/NNSA (National Nuclear Security Administration) sites, NIRS’ report discusses various loopholes through which these wastes have continued to be released into the environment.
- “Brokers” licensed to handle radioactive material sell or donate material to other processors not licensed
- Unchecked metal not directly part of nuclear processing (building structures, furniture) is regularly auctioned, exchanged to other federal agencies, donated or rented to public or private entities
- Radioactive waste is mixed with other wastes to be re-characterized as low-level radioactive waste with fewer or no release restrictions
I am so happy that we have a handle on that whole managing nuclear waste thing.
Somebody remind me again why I shouldn’t be screaming non-stop for greater energy conservation and use of renewables as a way to (among other things) minimize the use of nuclear power? Anyone? Bueller?
From Research Finds That Earth’s Climate is Approaching ‘Dangerous’ Point:
NASA and Columbia University Earth Institute research finds that human-made greenhouse gases have brought the Earth’s climate close to critical tipping points, with potentially dangerous consequences for the planet.
From a combination of climate models, satellite data, and paleoclimate records the scientists conclude that the West Antarctic ice sheet, Arctic ice cover, and regions providing fresh water sources and species habitat are under threat from continued global warming. The research appears in the current issue of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
…
However, the study finds much less severe climate change — one-quarter to one-third that of the “business-as-usual” scenario — when greenhouse gas emissions follow the alternative scenario. “Climate effects may still be substantial in the ‘alternative scenario’, but there is a better chance to adapt to the changes and find other ways to further reduce the climate change,” said Sato.While the researchers say it is still possible to achieve the “alternative scenario”, they note that significant actions will be required to do so. Emissions must begin to slow soon. “With another decade of ‘business-as-usual’ it becomes impractical to achieve the ‘alternative scenario’ because of the energy infrastructure that would be in place,” says Hansen.
First, note that one of the authors is James Hansen, one of the handful of people I consider to be “must listen to” individuals.
Second, ten freakin’ years??? That’s much, much closer than anyone would like. (Except for the Enviro Apocalypticon miscreants, of course.)
Third, the West Antarctic ice sheet being in danger is a very big deal. In terms of sea level rise, a complete melt of this formation works out to about 6 meters.
Fourth, the global warming deniers will no doubt cook up reasons why the world really isn’t warming or it won’t be bad or whatever.
Fifth, aren’t you just ticked pink that Bush is in power until January 2009, guaranteeing that nothing of substance will be done about global warming on the federal level in the US? I’m so happy I could scream.
The findings of the survey include:
- 87 percent feel that homebuilders should offer solar power as an option for all new homes; older Americans are less enthusiastic, with 77 percent of those over age 65 supporting solar on new homes
- Respondents understand that solar power can be used to turn the lights on (82 percent), heat bath water (82 percent) or heat a swimming pool (80 percent)
- Respondents are less likely to understand that solar can power electric devices such as computers or appliances (71 percent)
- 82 percent say that a decrease in monthly energy bills is their primary motivation for installing solar power; other respondents indicated it was to reduce overall energy usage (79 percent), reduce oil dependence (77 percent) or because it is a secure source of energy (75 percent)
- 56 percent would be interested in learning more about solar for their homes if the system could be obtained for zero money down and their utility bills would be lowered right away
Of course solar should be an option on new homes. Good friends of mine, Mark and Eve (everybody wave to Mark and Eve) are in the final stages of building a house with a very large, regional home builder in the US, and they were given zero energy-related options by the builder. That’s right–zero. That had lots of options for things like computer and speaker wiring and other goodies, but not so much as extra insulation in the attic.
In general, I like the numbers in the survey, but I don’t find them surprising. People tend to have a very positive opinion of solar–clean, quiet, renewable energy source–but they think it’s too expensive or not capable enough. The business about a smaller portion of people thinking solar can run their computers or appliances is a bit depressing, but at least the overall percentage is still high.
I love the bit about reducing oil dependence. I can’t tell you how many times I see this mistake in news stories. In the US, only about 4% of our electricity comes from oil, so while putting panels on your house might be a major step forward in reducing your CO2 emissions and (indirect) consumption of natural gas or coal or whatever, on average it won’t do diddly about oil.
The kicker is that last bullet I quoted, the part about a zero money down option. That’s precisely the PPA (power producer agreement) model I’ve written about before that’s already taking off in the US. Essentially, a business signs a long-term contract with a company like Honeywell (which I’ll use as an example, even though other companies are in this business), that installs all the solar hardware on the customer’s buildings. The customer agrees to buy electricity from the panels at a fixed cost, typically less than the going rate from the local utility. Honeywell owns and maintains the hardware, and at the end of the 10 to 20 year contract, the customer has the option of signing a new contract or walking away from the deal, and Honeywell comes and takes away all the hardware.
The PPA business model is the key to the mainstreaming of residential solar PV. As I understand it, it’s currently used only for businesses, but it will surely expand into the residential market. PPA’s will be just as important to the future of solar power as cheaper hardware, possibly more so, simply because they turn the act of installing solar panels from a custom, almost boutique operation into much more of a standardized, mass production operation.
Just a quick news mashup before I head out for semi-emergency dental work. Keep your molars crossed that the tooth in question can be capped and won’t have to be yanked. I have no idea if I’ll be online later today.
From Energy Efficiency is Fastest, Cheapest, Easiest Way for G8 to Cut Emissions:
Despite the enormous potential of energy efficiency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect the planet from dangerous climate change, too many of the existing efficiency policies and measures in the G8 industrialized countries, including the United States, are ineffective according to a new WWF report, Making Energy Efficiency Happen: From Potential To Realization. The report outlines what each of the G8 plus 5 countries can do to save energy and the climate while promoting their energy security with sustainable economic growth.
“There is no one silver bullet to stop dangerous climate change, but energy efficiency is the largest and most affordable solution available to avert the current crisis,” says Hans Verolme, Director of WWF’s Global Climate Change Program. “It shouldn’t take long for the world’s most powerful leaders to realize the immediate pay-off these efficiency measures offer.”
The WWF will get no argument from me on this point.
The problem, of course, is getting people to recognize the problems we face and then take the next huge step to doing something about it and not just be a passive consumer of the news (to the limited extent that many people still consume news). I have no great insight into how we do that, and it’s a problem that I wrestle with literally every day.
The report mentioned above, “Making Energy Efficiency Happen”, is available here (95-page, 801KB PDF).
From ‘Hypermilers’ wring out every last bit of mpg:
The passion that burns in Laurie With isn’t visible until she gets behind the wheel of her Honda Civic hybrid — and drives real slow.
She accelerates gently when the light turns green, and coasts down hills to save gas. On highways, she stays in the right lane and watches the big SUVs zoom past.
…
She is part of a small and extremely dedicated group of drivers around the country who call themselves “hypermilers.” They almost exclusively drive hybrid vehicles, and their goal is simple: squeeze every mile they can out of each drop of gas.Some of their tips are a matter of common sense and could help any driver, especially now, with gas climbing past $3 a gallon: avoiding jackrabbit starts, using alternate routes to avoid stop-and-go traffic, anticipating lights and driving a bit more slowly.
I do a very mild version of this, and it’s how I get 40MPG in a car that’s rated ar 34 city, 39 highway, even under the old, higher, EPA ratings. It’s free, it’s easy, and it’s safer, because you wind up paying more attention to traffic and lights.
Of course, if your spouse drives with a binary gas pedal (all the way up or all the way down, and nothing in the middle), then you’ll have some “interesting” discussions about how each of you drives. Don’t ask how I know this; it’s not pretty.
But the bigger point is that you can indeed learn a lot from people who are this dedicated to energy efficiency and apply just part of their techniques to reduce your gasoline bill and CO2 emissions if that’s what suits you best.
From Fla. Man Invents Machine To Turn Water Into Fire:
Kanzius said the flame created from his machine reaches a temperature of around 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit. He said a chemist told him that the immense heat created from the machine breaks down the hydrogen-oxygen bond in the water, igniting the hydrogen.
“You could take plain salt water out of the sea, put it in containers and produce a violent flame that could heat generators that make electricity, or provide other forms of energy,” Kanzius said.
Here we go again.
From States vie with US on emissions rules:
Four months after making headlines with its new program to fight global warming by reducing carbon-dioxide emissions from vehicles, California finds its new plan is stalled – as do 11 other states waiting to do the same.
As the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) holds a public hearing about the plan Wednesday in Sacramento, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and other governors are accusing the federal government of blocking their efforts to institute tougher standards for tailpipe emissions than US regulations require.
They say the Bush administration is dragging its feet on granting California a waiver – formal permission to deviate from federal standards – from the Clean Air Act, the sweeping 37-year-old federal law that regulates air emissions. California has requested 40 waivers since 1977 and received permission for the vast majority.
Until California gets the waiver, no other state that has adopted the same standards may move ahead either. The rules would force automakers to cut exhaust from cars and light trucks by 25 percent and from sport-utility vehicles by 18 percent, beginning with 2009 models. Collectively, the standards would cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 392 million metric tons by 2020 – the equivalent of taking 74 million cars off the road for one year, experts say.
Let me see if I’ve got this straight: The Republicans, who just love state’s rights arguments and the whole “let’s use the whole country as a vast array of experiments to find the right answer” idea are the ones in Washington blocking this. Could it possibly be that they’re terrified of the following scenario: California and other states impose such restrictions, the sky doesn’t fall, and the car companies don’t all fold up, then the whole country suddenly supports such legislation. Even worse, this set of events would prove the most horrible thing imaginable in the mind of the extreme right wingers: the fact that (gasp!) government is capable of doing something right.
How I do love the smell of cowardice and hypocrisy in the morning.
A ton of solar stuff showed up in my e-mail queue this morning. Herewith, some linky goodness:
Includes a link to New York’s Solar Roadmap (16-page, 1.55MB PDF)
And, on the off chance that you’re reading this site and you still don’t understand how important this is, see: C02 RISING EVER FASTER
From U.S. Rejects EU Targets On Climate Change:
The United States rejects the European Union’s all-encompassing target on reduction of carbon emissions, President Bush’s environmental adviser said Tuesday.
James Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said the United States is not against setting goals but prefers to focus them on specific sectors, such as reducing dependence on gasoline and cleaner coal. “The U.S. has different sets of targets,” he said.
…
Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel has been more blunt, voicing regret after he met [US Speaker of the House Nancy] Pelosi on Monday at the difficulty of achieving “concrete results” with the Bush administration.“I think that what we could achieve is at least a mandate for negotiations — a clear mandate — for the climate conference” later this year in Bali, Indonesia, which is set to consider future action against global warming, Gabriel told ARD television.
“The United States is rejecting that as well, so far,” he said, but “if we could achieve that, then I think Heiligendamm would have achieved a breakthrough.”
Everyone surprised to hear that the current administration is so willing to block serious action on the global warming front will now sprout wings and fly to the moon.
And anyone who thinks this shameful situation will change before January 2009 (when the next president takes office, for those not up on their US civics classes), or that squandering the eight years that this administration was in power wasn’t a huge, lost opportunity, will kindly join the first group in their lunar flight.
Honestly, I grow more cynical every day, but it’s still hard to keep up, as Lily Tomlin once said.
Yowza. You simply must hop over to RealClimate.org and read The weirdest millennium, a relatively short article showing just how far some of the global warming deniers will go. It’s enough to make your head explode.
I’m constantly amazed by the “human factors” (to borrow a phrase from the title of a short story I published a long time ago) of our E+E situation. The most obvious way this comes into play is the daunting task of getting people to recognize the problems we face and respond to them appropriately. The fact that we have to deal with deniers of both peak oil and global warming only makes the hill we’re climbing that much steeper.
When mainstreamers start to “get it,” as we’ve seen here in the US since the release of An Inconvenient Truth, we can quickly hit a tipping point as individuals plus businesses of all size begin taking action, even if tentatively at first. Yes, some of the corporate reaction is more “greenwashing” than substantive change, but even that is useful if it helps create a climate (no pun intended) in which heightened environmental awareness and taking action to reduce CO2 emissions are seen as the norm. The fact that we’ve yet to make that much progress on the peak oil front is a sad and frustrating reality, but I believe we’ll get there in the US, even if only through much higher gasoline prices and spot shortages.
There’s another side to this picture, though: As technology evolves and we start to adopt the latest it has to offer, we’re also abandoning older, dirtier, less efficient technology. That’s an undeniably good thing, but I wonder how many people are thinking about how quickly a shiny new technology can go from wunderkind to has-been? In particular, what about parallel hybrids (e.g. the technology in the current Prios and Civic Hybrid), and newly announced, long-term plans to adopt them? For example, PSE&G to Replace 1,300 Vehicles with Hybrids [over ten years] to Help Curb Carbon Emissions in New Jersey. If China’s demand for oil continues to gallop along and we hit the worldwide peak of oil production in just a few years, how quickly will we conclude that parallel hybrids were a cute engineering stunt but not very economical, as we blow right past them?
What will we adopt instead? BEV’s, plug-in series flex-fuel hybrids, and some additional public transportation. Those all make non-plug-in parallel hybrids look just a wee bit quaint.
And what’s next? Well, once we get to BEV’s, the only further advances are better batteries to get ever greater driving range, more recharging options at gas stations and other places for greater convenience, plus the ongoing conversion of our electricity generation infrastructure to ever cleaner sources and technologies. And I’m sure there will be some endless battles, like what to do with the existing and growing legacy of nuclear waste.
So don’t worry, there will be plenty to do, and miles to blog before we sleep.
What’s that, you say? BMW and Ford Mull Volvo Sale? Anyone who didn’t see that coming just wasn’t paying attention.
BMW is by far the best potential buyer for Volvo, at least among car companies, and not just because they’re doing their own interesting work on making greener cars.
And, let me make an opportunity to urge US readers once again to do your part to fight the abomination known as HR 2337, that insanely anti-wind power bill just starting its crawl thorough the US House of Representatives (prior post). You can contact your member of the House here.
I’m not sure how much I’ll be around today to post, so let me toss out a few quick items.
I’ve juggled the WordPress settings again–you can now post without registering, but you must have a previously approved (by me) comment.
On to said tidbits:
A pretty good roundup of lighting options. Notice that the article lumps halogens in with incandescents, which is exactly where they belong. For some reason a lot of people think halogens are highly energy efficient, when they’re just another variant of incandescents. Anyone who uses them knows how hot they get–which is the big tip off. Any artificial lighting source that produces a lot of heat will be inefficient, as that’s all wasted energy.
While I generally agree with the author on the oil situation and our inexcusable failure to respond to it for decades, I think he takes a bit too cut-and-dried view of this mess. E.g. I don’t think you can assume that we’ll pay “a whole lot more” for gasoline “next year and the year after that.” It could well turn out that way, even without a hurricane or war adding to the situation, but it’s by no means as certain as the author claims.
Here we go again–yet another genuine advance regarding hydrogen that has the potential to untangle only part of that immense knot.
If you have high blood pressure, you might want to skip this article. There’s a hell of a lot we can criticize car companies for, but this is so awful, and so far beyond the boundaries of sanity, that it gets not only a Bronx cheer and a one-finger salute, but a big fat 100 on the Inhofe Scale for Willful Reality Detachment.
And just when you thought your outrage could begin to subside, this gem comes along. Hey Stoner–you got room for two more citizens up there in Toronto? My wife and I aren’t fans of beer or hockey, but we love lacrosse and we promise to drink lots and lots of locally produced wine.
Scary stuff. Makes me happy I fly a keyboard for a (non-)living.
I just flipped the WordPress switch that requires a user to be registered before he or she can comment. I’m not a fan of that solution, but it was the only way to hold on to what little sanity I had left.
About that busted comment edit box thing:
I experimented a little with FireFox (version 2.0.0.3) and IE (version 7.0.5730.11), and I can’t make the comment edit box misbehave. I resized the browser window, typed in text, resized some more, and it all seems to be fine. I don’t see why this should act differently depending on the user status, so I’m wondering if it’s the browser. (Anyone who refers to things like HTML and CSS as a “standard” should be laughed out of the room. Trust me–the browser incompatibilities with these “standards” are enough to make anyone swear like a drunk longshoreman.)
Everyone who is seeing this problem, please post a comment in this thread (or e-mail me) and let me know which browser you’re using, and which version (click on the Help menu entry on the main screen and then About). And please let me know exactly what you’re seeing. Does the comment edit box bleed over onto other parts of the screen? Is it covered up by the right hand column?
It’s incredibly quiet here this morning. I’ve been at the keyboard for over an hour and I’ve yet to see or hear a car go by on my (normally busy) street. (And just as I type that, the first car rolls by. Go figure.)
Administrative change coming: I hate to do it, but I will shortly require people to register before they can comment on stories. As you’ve probably noticed, quite a few spam comments have cropped up, which I’ve deleted immediately, but it’s getting to be a royal butt pain.
So get those registrations in now and beat the rush! Operators are waiting, and the registrations won’t last long at this price (free)! Makes a great gift!
Hey–anyone out there in energy geek land? I know it’s a holiday weekend here in the US, plus it’s a just plain gorgeous day in some parts of the country, like right outside my window.
We won’t be traveling this weekend, not for energy or economic reasons, but simply because my wife and I both need a long weekend to relax, drink some good wine, commune with the miniature roses, and finally decide what the hell color to paint the foyer.
From Oil prices forecast to hit $80:
Global oil prices could easily rally to record levels above $80 a barrel this summer, analysts forecast on Thursday, due to Middle East tensions, red hot Chinese growth and a reluctant OPEC.
But record high prices will not have the same impact on oil demand as in the past few years since consumers have grown accustomed to it.
…
One significant change since last summer has been OPEC’s decision to curb supplies by 1.7 million barrels per day, or about 6 per cent.“The world needs more oil than OPEC seems willing to supply, making it difficult to avoid another surge in oil prices over the coming summer,” the Centre for Global Energy Studies said in its monthly report.
Consumer nations have called on OPEC, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, to pump more crude to help ease prices and replenish fuel stocks. But oil ministers insist crude supplies are adequate.
…
Even if prices surge to record territory, the effect on global oil demand will most likely not be as severe as past rallies.“This time around you need a really big price spike to really damage demand because people’s budgets have adjusted and they have gotten used to it,” said Jeffrey Currie, analyst at Goldman Sachs investment bank.
First, longtime readers know how much I detest oil price predictions. The market is so tight that it’s not hard to conjure up a scenario in which we see oil rise to $80, $100, $150 or more.
Still, I can’t help but look at the current situation, as described in the above article, and and think we won’t hit a new record oil price within the next few months, even without a war, an embargo, a hurricane, or some other “above ground” factor coming into play. Most revealing of all the lack of production from OPEC, as I’ve written about numerous times in the last month or so. The big showdown with OPEC, and in particular, Saudi Arabia, will likely happen within three or four months, when we have very high prices and the whole world turns to OPEC and/or KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) to open the spigot a little more, and they don’t. That’s when people start asking if they’re “out of oil” or simply intentionally screwing the importers, and peak oil leaps into the mainstream news.
Anyone want to make a peak oil version of An Inconvenient Truth? If so, I have my PowerPoint slides all set to go, and I’m ready for my closeup.
I should mention here that people in the US should not blame “high” gasoline prices on the world oil situation. The price of oil creates a floor for the price of gasoline, obviously, but the current “high” gasoline prices are due more to refinery issues. If OPEC opened the oil floodgates it wouldn’t ease the tightness of the gasoline market.
As for the contention in the above article that people won’t react much to these prices, I’m not sure I agree. Yes, I’ve seen all the predictions for Memorial Day travel, but that’s a “special event” for many people in the US, making it a very poor proxy for overall response to gasoline prices. (People make trips planned well in advance, often as part of a family tradition, and many of those trips have almost no options for public transportation.) But I’ve also seen the reports of increased use of public transportation by people commuting to school and work. I think we’ll just have to wait a few weeks to see how this plays out. Will people react as I hope they will, or will it be yet another case of a frog being slowly boiled to death in a pot of water?
From The Big Thaw:
From the high mountains to the vast polar ice sheets, the world is losing its ice faster than anyone thought possible. Even scientists who had monitored Chacaltaya [in the Bolivian Andes] since 1991 thought it would hold out for a few more years. It’s no surprise that glaciers are melting as emissions from cars and industry warm the climate. But lately, the ice loss has outstripped the upward creep of global temperatures.
Scientists are finding that glaciers and ice sheets are surprisingly touchy. Instead of melting steadily, like an ice cube on a summer day, they are prone to feedbacks, when melting begets more melting and the ice shrinks precipitously. At Chacaltaya, for instance, the shrinking glacier exposed dark rocks, which sped up its demise by soaking up heat from the sun. Other feedbacks are shriveling bigger mountain glaciers ahead of schedule and sending polar ice sheets slipping into the ocean.
Most glaciers in the Alps could be gone by the end of the century, Glacier National Park’s namesake ice by 2030. The small glaciers sprinkled through the Andes and Himalaya have a few more decades at best. And the prognosis for the massive ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica? No one knows, if only because the turn for the worse has been so sudden. Eric Rignot, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory who has measured a doubling in ice loss from Greenland over the past decade, says: “We see things today that five years ago would have seemed completely impossible, extravagant, exaggerated.”
…
Computer models that forecast how ice sheets will react to the warming tend to predict a sluggish response—a few thousand years for them to melt, shrink, and catch up to the reality of a warmer world. If the models are right, rising seas are a distant threat.Yet what is happening on the Greenland ice sheet is anything but leisurely. For the past 15 years, Konrad Steffen of the University of Colorado at Boulder has spent each spring monitoring the ice from a camp deep in the interior. Back again in the coastal village of Ilulissat last summer, the Swiss-born climate researcher, lean and weathered from wind and glacial glare, sits with colleagues in a waterfront hotel, waiting out fog that has grounded their helicopter. “Things are changing,” he says. “We see it all over.”
I can’t recommend this one highly enough. It’s a longer article than I normally link to, but it’s from about as mainstream and solid a publication (National Geographic) as you can find, and it’s definitely worth your time.
And it’s a terrifying read. The disappearance of fresh water supplies in many parts of the world, rising sea levels, and ever-growing evidence that it’s all happening much faster than virtually anyone predicted. The evidence continues to grow that even if we get very serious about reducing CO2 emissions, humanity will pay a very high price in terms of drought conditions, forced relocation, and damage from more intense tropical storms.
Of course, the delusional deniers will still claim there’s nothing whatsoever to be worried about as long as we all clap and cheer louder.
These links are priced to move, people. Everything on the card table is $1, everything else is marked.
