I’m constantly amazed by the “human factors” (to borrow a phrase from the title of a short story I published a long time ago) of our E+E situation. The most obvious way this comes into play is the daunting task of getting people to recognize the problems we face and respond to them appropriately. The fact that we have to deal with deniers of both peak oil and global warming only makes the hill we’re climbing that much steeper.

When mainstreamers start to “get it,” as we’ve seen here in the US since the release of An Inconvenient Truth, we can quickly hit a tipping point as individuals plus businesses of all size begin taking action, even if tentatively at first. Yes, some of the corporate reaction is more “greenwashing” than substantive change, but even that is useful if it helps create a climate (no pun intended) in which heightened environmental awareness and taking action to reduce CO2 emissions are seen as the norm. The fact that we’ve yet to make that much progress on the peak oil front is a sad and frustrating reality, but I believe we’ll get there in the US, even if only through much higher gasoline prices and spot shortages.

There’s another side to this picture, though: As technology evolves and we start to adopt the latest it has to offer, we’re also abandoning older, dirtier, less efficient technology. That’s an undeniably good thing, but I wonder how many people are thinking about how quickly a shiny new technology can go from wunderkind to has-been? In particular, what about parallel hybrids (e.g. the technology in the current Prios and Civic Hybrid), and newly announced, long-term plans to adopt them? For example, PSE&G to Replace 1,300 Vehicles with Hybrids [over ten years] to Help Curb Carbon Emissions in New Jersey. If China’s demand for oil continues to gallop along and we hit the worldwide peak of oil production in just a few years, how quickly will we conclude that parallel hybrids were a cute engineering stunt but not very economical, as we blow right past them?

What will we adopt instead? BEV’s, plug-in series flex-fuel hybrids, and some additional public transportation. Those all make non-plug-in parallel hybrids look just a wee bit quaint.

And what’s next? Well, once we get to BEV’s, the only further advances are better batteries to get ever greater driving range, more recharging options at gas stations and other places for greater convenience, plus the ongoing conversion of our electricity generation infrastructure to ever cleaner sources and technologies. And I’m sure there will be some endless battles, like what to do with the existing and growing legacy of nuclear waste.

So don’t worry, there will be plenty to do, and miles to blog before we sleep.