I hope to have some Real Content posted later today, Saturday morning at the latest. I’m a little discombobulated today, thanks to a morning doctor appointment and getting ready for a visit from our friends, Mark and Eve.
So, let me turn the microphone over to all youse guys. Tell me what’s on your mind, energy and environment-wise. Which things scare you and which give you the most hope, where do think the tipping points are in our situation (i.e. how high will gasoline have to go before US drivers get Very Serious about conservation and/or switching to alternatives (include your definition of “Very Serious”, of course)), if and when will PO overtake GW as “the” public concern, etc.
My answers:
On my mind: My ongoing effort to determine which factors will be a big deal, which we can ignore, and how the entire landscape will change under the influence of various X Factors, like the arrival of radically cheaper solar PV hardware.
Scares me: The immense uncertainties surrounding oil, especially in the context of Bush’s psychotic saber rattling over Iran.
Gives me hope: The apparently limitless flexibility and ingenuity of human beings when faced with an extraordinary challenge.
Tipping points: Gasoline at $4 to $5/gallon or persistent spot shortages. Another couple of seasons of record-breaking GW evidence from the poles.
Perception that PO > GW: I think there’s no more than a one-in-three chance it will happen at all, as politicians will continue to say everything but the radioactive words “peak oil” (thanks to the Apocalypticon morons on the Internet). But if it happens, it won’t be until well into 2009, unless there’s some precipitating event.
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September 28th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
I don’t think $5/gallon will do it. I have a friend in Iceland, land of 7$/gallon gas. When his car got totaled he was looking at the Volvo SUV as a replacement for his existing volvo. He’s pretty solidly middle class, not really into muscle cars, he just thought it was a sensible option. 5$/gallon is not going to do it for the middle/upper middle class crowd, and luxury cars are where the best margins are.
What gives me hope is the potential runaway compounding benefits we will get if we make family planning free and universal. It is so cost effective and kind in the short term. And I really don’t think it’s as politically toxic as we’ve been led to believe. There are many things I am not looking forward to in a Clinton presidency, bbut I do think she will be a force for choice and reproductive rights. (Whether she stands up for sexual liberties in general is an open question.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
With regard to saber-rattling on Iran, the situation seems rather different than the build-up to Iraq. This time the push seems to be fully backed by key European allies, especially France. The French president has called for bombing Iran if that is the only way to stop them from going nuclear, and the French foreign minister has explicitly said that the world should prepare for war with Iran. Germany seems to be on board as well, along with Britain and others.
The situation was different with Iraq, where the United States was far more isolated in its attempt to claim that Saddam sought nuclear weapons.
The sad thing about the story of the boy who cried wolf is that eventually there was a wolf, but nobody believed him by then. Just because Bush went too far in characterizing Saddam’s nuclear ambitions doesn’t mean that he is wrong again about Iran. It’s got to mean something that even the U.S.’s massive screw-up in Iraq is not deterring European leaders from being willing to go out on that same limb with regard to Iran.
September 29th, 2007 at 6:48 am
On my mind: Whether the nay-sayers on CC/GW and PO are just “real people” (certainly they live, breathe and eat, etc.) or just shills for the alliance to obfuscate the facts on tobacco and climate change. It really wouldn’t take much money to set ten educated people up with ten pseudo’s and pepper the blogs and news papers/sites with questions, comments and disinformation with the objective of confusing the issue. (Hey, it beats worrying about taxes and stuff like that.)
Scares me: The potential for needless disruption of our social order when the mainstream can see that PO and CC/GW are not only real, but they are real right now. We cannot change what the climate will be like nest week or next year, but we can make responsible decisions right now that will have significant impacts in possibly as little as 20 years.
Gives me hope: That Lou will get the masses to accept that gradual change will get us moving in the right direction. A sarcastic hope: That Jack #3 will not only be better than Jack #2, but that it can be produced as well.
Tipping points: The psychological impact of $100/Bbl oil. I think that MOST people will drive no matter what, and that the vast majority of (at least) Americans are over-extended financially anyway, so it will take some change in mindset to bring about a change in daily actions - financial hurt won’t do it. (Of course, I was the wrongest on the price projections on the high for gasoline prices, so take anything I project with several grains of salt.)
PO>GW perception: As fast as GW is coming on, GW may well stay out front. If people will switch to PHEV’s and make other changes in their lifestyles to mitigate GW fast enough maybe PO (at least the crossover where demand outstrips supply) will not become as critical as fast as most of us fringe “nuts” think. TOD comments have increasingly reflected MSM comments on PO, which gives me hope as well. No offense intended, but if we could talk most of the recreational boaters to get out their oars and leave their 250 HP boats at home, we could substantially reduce the consumption of gasoline, even in trailering since they won’t be paddling or rowing twenty foot Boston Whalers and beautifully refinished Chris Crafts, and they wouldn’t need to pull their travel trailers which look to be somewhat larger than the highly energy efficient house my wonderful wife and I are building (on solid ground).