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October 24, 2007

TWIP surprise by at 11:16 AM on October 24, 2007.

Today’s TWIP (This Week in Petroleum report) (emphasis added):

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.9 million barrels per day during the week ending October 19, down 183,000 barrels per day from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 87.1 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production rose compared to the previous week, averaging nearly 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production fell last week, averaging 3.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, down 1,305,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.9 million barrels per day, or 414,000 barrels per day less than averaged over the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)last week averaged 838,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 235,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 5.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 316.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week, and are at the lower end of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components fell last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels, and are at the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased 0.6 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.9 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.8 million barrels per day, up by 0.4 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.2 million barrels per day, or 0.2 percent below the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 1.0 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is down 3.3 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

The tables that follow display the latest U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet and the most recent 4 weeks of Weekly Petroleum Status Report data.

And from Bloomberg we have Crude Oil Rises After Report Shows Unexpected U.S. Supply Drop:

Crude oil rose for the first time in four days after the Energy Department reported that U.S. oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly declined.

Crude oil supplies fell 5.29 million barrels to 316.6 million barrels last week, the report showed. A gain of 963,000 barrels was expected, according to the median of 16 responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports plunged 13 percent to 9.1 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week ended March 2.

“There’s no way to look at this report as anything but bullish,” said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “This is an exhibit of the tightness we’ve been talking about. There just isn’t enough oil out there and the situation won’t be remedied until OPEC opens the taps.”

Crude oil for December delivery rose $1.68, or 2 percent, $86.95 a barrel at 10:49 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $84.68 earlier today, the lowest since Oct. 15. Prices are up 47 percent from a year ago.

Aaaaaaand we’re off!

One Response to “TWIP surprise”

  1. Woodchuck Says:

    My initial reaction is that the reporting is all messed up. One week, we are way short of projections and the next week, we are caught up/over. Back in the 70’s and early 80’s, Yamani, the Saudi oil minister, would play cute tricks with the numbers and keep everybody guessing while nobody wanted to be caught short of oil. No matter what the market price, high or low, he kept everybody guessing. I know the numbers are a lot bigger now, but it reminds me of that pattern. The reactions in either direction are misdirected. Oil has peaked, or is peaking, or will peak. Only the people taking a market position will benefit from the daily fluctuations, but all of us will be hurt by the eventual impact of less than what the world expects, usually thought of as demand. We will undoubtedly find that true demand will drop dramatically as everybody adjusts and it would be nice if everybody would adjust right now. That would certainly ease the eventual pain for many who have already had to cut back, and I don’t mean the guys/gals who had to give up towing their boat with their motorhome to the bass tournament 1,500 miles distant.

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