Surprisingly Strong SUV Sales:

Thought sales of big, expensive SUVs and pickups were on life support? It would seem that reports of their death have been greatly exaggerated as sales for some of the largest, thirstiest luxury models, including the Cadillac Escalade ESV, Mercedes-Benz GL, and Toyota Tundra have shown a surprising resurgence.

“There are buyers for whom, that’s the vehicle they still want, for what their needs are, and gas prices won’t deter everyone,” says Stephanie Brinley, senior manager for product analysis at Tustin (Calif.)-based AutoPacific.

For the entire U.S. auto industry, light trucks still constitute more than 50% of sales, and the vehicles are on track to regain in 2007 the market share that was lost in 2005 and 2006. That share growth includes, but is not limited to, a growing number of car-based crossover vehicles that look like trucks but drive more like cars.

…

This year’s sales results show that many shoppers never stopped wanting big SUVs. With high gas prices, some of them may have needed an extra push in the form of incentives, while others can simply afford it.

And after all, says Brinley, people wouldn’t buy big trucks at all if the only thing they wanted was good gas mileage. “People who have chosen to buy those vehicles understand higher gas prices,” she says. “They know that going into it.”

State [California] may see $4 gasoline in ‘08 (emphasis added):

Gasoline could average $3.75 a gallon across the U.S. in a few months, pushing the price in California up and over the $4 mark, energy analysts said Wednesday.

Several factors point toward a nightmarish spring for motorists, they said, including persistently strong crude oil costs and the fact that the traditional December drop in pump prices didn’t materialize.

“If anyone expects gas to be less than a new record, they are not thinking,” said Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co. “There is no question it will be much higher than last year.”

…

Pump prices usually fall between Labor Day and the end of the year, in recent years dropping about 17% in California.

This year they did the reverse, gaining 17%.

…

Kloza said that nationally for the last 25 years, the difference in the price of gas from the winter low to the spring high has been about 59%.

“I don’t think we will see a typical surge, and we don’t have to,” Kloza said. With an increase of just 30%, he said, “you’re talking about 75 cents a gallon more from where they are now.”

I tell people incessantly, whether on this site or in person, that if they own a newish vehicle, the chances are very good that they’ll be putting $5 or $6 gasoline into it. The looks of disbelief, sometimes edging into that “are you out of your bloody mind???” expression, I get are something to behold.

People may be buying unnecessarily large and inefficient vehicles now because they think they can handle filling them with $3 gasoline, but that’s stupefyingly short sighted, on par with the Federal Reserve, the lenders, and the borrowers who effectively conspired to create the subprime mortgage debacle that’s still playing out.

I’ve reached the point where I’m openly wishing for much higher gasoline prices in the US–something in the $5 to $6 range for at least six months, as a start. And yes, I’m quite aware of the economic pain that would cause many people in the US who are just barely able to pay for their transportation to work and/or school. But the nasty reality is that nothing else but a huge economic incentive will force people to change enough to make a serious dent in our oil consumption–we’re certainly not going get any help from policymakers.

I hope you’ll excuse me now–I have an appointment to go open a vein.