I’ve had a few discussions lately with people I know, all with more than a passing interest in and knowledge of peak oil. One particular point I’ve brought up with them is the notion of who knows that peak oil is real and imminent. In this context, the “who” is national politicians and the heads of very large corporations. (For the sake of those discussions and this one I’m limiting the possible date of the global production peak to 2011 +/- 1 year.)
The responses I got were interesting, to say the least, and pretty evenly split between two schools of thought:
“They don’t know jack!” This camp thinks that the power players (including the businesspeople) are all as dumb as most Republicans think anyone in government is. Personally, I have a very hard time believing that, especially since there are a few (albeit very few) politicians speaking openly about peak oil at the national and state levels. How could there be this much discussion and dozens of oil books on the shelf right now, without politicians and corporate heads asking a lot of very pointed questions of independent sources? I think it’s entirely possible that they could ask those questions and run screaming from the answers, but even as they lied to the public they would still know.
“Of course they know! How could they not???” This is where I fall, for the most part. I’m not by any means convinced that every single member of the US Congress or the Bush Administration thinks peak oil is about to knock on our door. I’m sure a good portion of our elected officials are as naive as a puppy (even if nowhere as cute), and they really and truly believe Exxon and the USGS projections that peak oil will come after 2030. But I know for a fact that at least some of them, like Roscoe Bartlett in the US House of Representatives and some state-level politicians in Connecticut, know the score. And as for the heads of big corporations–they would have to have their heads in some very deep sand not to see what’s coming. Which is a polite way of saying that some know and some are just as naive as the worst of our politicians.
I think that the public pronouncements of government and corporate officials supports the “of course they know” model. They know we’re getting close enough to the peak that they have no choice but to start changing their tune, at least a little. As I’ve said before, they’ll likely continue to “split the difference” between their most recent pronouncement and what they really think will happen for some time, and asymptotically approach accuracy.
What do you think they know?
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December 31st, 2007 at 2:06 pm
What do you think the chances are of global oil use declining substantially between now and 2011 due to a severe and persistent American recession beginning in 2008, which drags down the world economy? Suppose someone believes this is the most likely forecast, how does he fit into your dichotomy between “those who know” and those who don’t?
December 31st, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Hal: I think what you’re asking is, in essence, what does “peak oil” really mean? Does it mean the peak in our production capability (which is how some people use the phrase), or the peak in actual production, which is how I use it. In the latter case, I think it’s quite possible that we’ll see a major recession slow down oil consumption in the US, Europe, and possibly even China (still growing, but not as quickly), putting us on a plateau for another 2 or 3 years before the decline sets in. In that scenario, we could argue endlessly about when the peak “really” happened–was it at the beginning, middle, or end of the plateau? At the all-time peak, even if that was a level only 0.1% higher than surrounding levels?
As for how this relates to the question I asked, I’m not sure I see how it connects. If someone thinks we’re headed for a recession and dropoff in oil consumption, that says nothing about what he or she thinks about the issue of peak, all-time, global oil production. I could easily imagine someone forecasting the short-term plateau and thinking it’s either “the” peak or just a breather before we zoom off into the stratosphere, ala those EIA projections I’m always making fun of.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:51 pm
I think there’s a fair amount of doublethink going on. There isn’t really any room in free-market ideology for Peak Oil.. after all, the market will just solve all problems.
Think about the folks who built the Berlin Wall– did they know that East Germany wasn’t a Worker’s Paradise? Most of the higher-ups probably did, in one sense or another (you can’t rise to the top of the heap without a general sense of reality). But communist ideology didn’t permit them to acknowledge this, so they said (and may have partly believed) the purpose of their Wall was to keep out West German spies. Perhaps, as time went on, their pronouncements asymmetrically approached reality.
The people who run our country believe cutting taxes increases revenue, in Freedom through Bombing, and that partially drowning prisoners to break them is not torture. Their ideology also requires them to believe that oil is infinite; big deal, its just a bit more doublethink.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:15 pm
One of the problems I have with the Peak Oil perspective is the common assumption that the situation is not only threatening, but also *obvious*. Most Peak Oilers believe that anyone seriously studying the issue will come to the same conclusion they have. At the same time, it’s clearly not a widespread belief. And we continue to see an apparent resistance on the part of markets to recognize the likelihood of substantially higher fuel prices in the next 5+ years.
To me, these facts don’t add up. My conclusion is that Peak Oil is not obvious, although it may turn out to be true. And therefore I would not assume that all these powerful, wealthy businessmen and politicians would necessarily come to believe in Peak Oil even if they studied it (or more likely, delegated staff members to study it).
January 1st, 2008 at 9:37 pm
The article “Darker 2008 for Detroit’s Automakers” (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/01/business/01auto.html) closes with this:
Dean Konner, who owns Konner Chevrolet in West Caldwell, N.J., remains optimistic for 2008 although he said 2007 was “not good.” He said G. M.’s new vehicles have been great but that unfortunately they came at a time when the market was weak.
“The outlook hopefully will be brighter than this year,” Mr. Konner said, “but we need the gas prices to come down.”
So apparently the car dealers don’t have a clue. Even if they did have a clue, what would they do about it? Voluntarily go out of business? Push the automakers to design more fuel efficient cars? Hay, yes! Maybe that’s where we should concentrate some education effort. What would happen if all the Ford and GM dealers collectively requested better gas mileage? Do they have any leverage with the manufacturers or are they too afraid of loosing their permission to sell these gas guzzlers?